Climate shocks and slow-onset changes impact ecological conditions in rural lands that trigger shifts in agricultural productivity, thus eroding the incomes of poor and marginal cultivators. Migratory decisions may be taken to escape from these losses in rural incomes, which are variably intensified by climatic stress.
This report predicts that by 2030, such changes are likely to be magnified in arid and semi-arid areas of Pakistan that are important in terms of wheat production and are home to large rural populations. Thus, the development deficit in Pakistan’s semi-arid rural areas, paralleled by higher investments in urban centres, together lure potential migrants from rural areas to urban settlements.
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